Fuel prices are rising because the war involving Iran has squeezed global oil supply for almost seven months, and diesel has taken the hardest hit. On 22 September 2026, RAC Fuel Watch data put average UK petrol at 172.85p a litre and diesel at 196.89p, just 3p short of £2.
This article explains why prices are climbing, what the latest forecasts say, and what it all means for transport services. It is written for everyone who plans, funds, drives or relies on passenger transport, from scheme coordinators and trustees to councils, NHS transport teams, volunteers, passengers and their families.
Live UK average petrol and diesel prices, refreshed throughout the day. Data from PetrolPrices.co.uk, sourced from the UK Government Fuel Finder scheme (DESNZ). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Key Takeaways
- Diesel is close to £2 a litre. RAC figures show diesel at 196.89p and petrol at 172.85p on 22 September 2026, up 54.5p and 40p since the war began.
- Oil supply and a diesel shortage are the main drivers. Brent crude has traded around $100 a barrel in September, and tight refining supply keeps diesel well above petrol.
- Fuel duty is due to rise by 5p a litre in 2027, on 1 January and 1 March, adding about 6p at the pump with VAT. Final rates come at the Budget on 28 October 2026.
- Forecasts point to high prices through winter. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average around $90 for the rest of 2026, easing to $74 in 2027.
- Mileage is the cost you control. A diesel minibus now costs about 10p a mile more in fuel than before the war, so cutting wasted miles protects budgets fastest.
Why are fuel prices rising again?
Fuel prices are rising again because oil is expensive and supply is still disrupted. Brent crude sold for about $72 a barrel before the war began on 28 February 2026. Renewed attacks on shipping and energy sites pushed it back above $100 in September, according to AP reporting.
The Strait of Hormuz is the pressure point. Millions of barrels a day are crossing it again, but Bloomberg reports flows remain below prewar levels. The US Energy Information Administration expects Middle East output to stay below its prewar average until spring 2027.
Prices have not moved in a straight line. Diesel reached 191.54p in mid April, then fell a record 17p in June after a US and Iran deal. When talks broke down in July, prices climbed again, and in September they passed their spring peak, the RAC confirmed.
Four forces are pushing prices up right now:
- Supply risk. Attacks on tankers and energy sites around the Gulf keep traders nervous.
- Falling stocks. The EIA estimates global oil inventories have dropped by 400 million barrels this year.
- A diesel shortage. Refineries are not producing enough diesel, so it costs more than petrol.
- Slow price cuts. Some retailers have been slow to pass on wholesale falls, a concern the CMA has raised.
What are UK fuel prices right now?
Average UK petrol is 172.85p a litre and diesel is 196.89p, based on RAC data for 22 September 2026. A week earlier, petrol broke through £1.70 for the first time since August 2022, and diesel hit its highest level since July 2022, the RAC reported.
Diesel is now only about 2p below its all time record of 199.09p, set in June 2022. Petrol is further from its 191.5p record from July 2022.
| Date (2026) | Petrol (p/litre) | Diesel (p/litre) | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late February | About 133 | About 142 | War begins on 28 February |
| 15 April | No data | 191.54 | Diesel spring peak |
| End of June | 151 | 167 | Record monthly fall in diesel |
| 20 July | 153.46 | 168.55 | Rises resume after talks stall |
| 15 September | 170.54 | 192.86 | Petrol passes £1.70 |
| 22 September | 172.85 | 196.89 | Diesel within 3p of £2 |
For a typical 55 litre tank, the difference is stark. Filling with petrol now costs about £95, up £22 since February. A diesel tank costs about £108, up £30. For a fleet refuelling several vehicles a week, those sums build quickly.
The government also publishes official averages every Tuesday in its weekly road fuel prices series. These can differ slightly from RAC figures because the two use different data and timing, so pick one source and stick with it when you track your own costs.
Why is diesel rising faster than petrol?
Diesel is rising faster because the world is short of diesel, not just crude oil. Refineries turn each barrel into several products. Diesel, heating oil and jet fuel all come from the same part of the barrel, so when supply tightens, that part commands a bigger premium than petrol.
In its September outlook, the EIA raised its forecast for the diesel refining margin by about 21% for 2026 and 28% for 2027. It expects global diesel output to stay below last year's level in the coming months, which keeps the gap with petrol wide.
This matters for passenger transport. Most minibuses, accessible vehicles and larger cars run on diesel. Since the war began, diesel has risen 54.5p a litre against 40p for petrol, so diesel fleets have absorbed the sharper shock.
Why are pump prices rising when oil has dipped?
Brent slipped just below $100 on 22 September after reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Trading Economics. Pump prices still crept higher. Forecourts buy fuel days or weeks ahead, so today's price reflects what they paid when wholesale costs were higher.
The Competition and Markets Authority watches this closely. Its August report found no evidence that retailers changed strategy to exploit the crisis. It did find some were slow to pass on falls in wholesale diesel costs, and it will publish a deeper review this autumn.
Drivers call this rockets and feathers: prices shoot up fast and float down slowly. The CMA estimates drivers can save up to £9 a tank by shopping around, using apps built on the government's Fuel Finder data, which now covers 99% of UK road fuel sales.
What makes up the price of a litre of fuel?
Every litre has five parts: crude oil, refining, delivery, the retailer's margin and tax. Crude and refining move the most, which is why pump prices swing with world events. Tax changes far less often, but it makes up a large slice of every litre you buy.
- Fuel duty: a flat 52.95p a litre on petrol and diesel until 31 December 2026.
- VAT: 20% charged on the whole price, including duty.
- Retailer margin: the CMA put the market average at about 10.7p a litre in 2025.
- Wholesale fuel: crude plus refining, priced in US dollars, so a weaker pound pushes it up.
At 196.89p, a litre of diesel includes about 32.8p of VAT and 52.95p of duty. That means roughly 44% of the price is tax. When oil is expensive, tax is a smaller share of the total, even though the VAT paid on each litre is higher.
What will happen to fuel duty in 2027?
Fuel duty is due to rise for the first time since 2011, as the House of Commons Library notes. The temporary 5p cut from March 2022 runs until 31 December 2026. HMRC's published rates then return duty to its old level in two steps.
| Period | Duty per litre | Effect at the pump (with VAT) |
|---|---|---|
| Now to 31 December 2026 | 52.95p | No change |
| From 1 January 2027 | 55.95p | About 3.6p more a litre |
| From 1 March 2027 | 57.95p | About 2.4p more, 6p in total |
| From April 2027 | RPI uprating planned | Depends on future Budgets |
These rates are the legal default, not the final word. The government will confirm them at the Budget on 28 October 2026, and the RAC is arguing for a longer freeze. Budget for the rise now, and treat any reprieve as a welcome bonus rather than a plan.
Fuel price forecast: will prices go down?
Prices are likely to stay high through the winter and ease only slowly in 2027, but the path depends on the Middle East. Nobody can forecast pump prices with confidence while Gulf shipping is restricted. The evidence supports planning within a range rather than betting on a single number.
October to December 2026
The EIA expects Brent to average around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026, with stocks falling until the year ends. The RAC warns pump prices look set to keep rising while oil trades above $100. Expect diesel to hover near £2 unless a peace deal lands.
January to March 2027
The duty rises add about 6p a litre by March. If oil eases as forecast, that may cancel out part of the rise, but it is unlikely to bring prices back to spring levels. HMRC's next company car fuel rate review, on 1 December, will show how far official figures have caught up.
The rest of 2027
The EIA expects Brent to fall to an average of $74 in 2027 as production recovers and stocks rebuild. It also expects diesel supply to stay tight through much of the year. That points to lower pump prices than today, but with diesel keeping a larger premium over petrol than before the war.
What could push prices up or down
- Up: more attacks on tankers or energy sites, further delays to Gulf exports, a weaker pound, or duty rises confirmed at the Budget.
- Down: a deal that reopens Hormuz, which Iran has reportedly offered within seven days if the US eases its blockade, the restart of Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, or faster rebuilding of global stocks.
To help with budgeting, the table below turns three diesel prices into fuel cost per mile. These are planning scenarios worked out by Road XS, not forecasts.
| Scenario | Diesel price | Minibus at 25 mpg | Car at 45 mpg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before the war | 142p | 25.9p a mile | 14.4p a mile |
| Prices ease | 175p | 31.8p a mile | 17.7p a mile |
| Today | 197p | 35.8p a mile | 19.9p a mile |
| Stress test | 215p | 39.1p a mile | 21.7p a mile |
What do rising fuel prices mean for transport operators?
Rising fuel prices land hardest on services running long, lightly loaded journeys. Rural community transport, Dial-a-Ride, patient transport and SEND school transport all fit that pattern. A diesel minibus at 25 mpg now uses about 35.8p of fuel a mile, against 25.9p before the war.
For one minibus covering 30,000 miles a year, that is roughly £3,000 of extra fuel. The 2027 duty rise would add around £330 more. Multiply that across a fleet, and the gap between contract rates and real running costs becomes a serious risk to services.
For coordinators, transport managers and DRT leads
- Track fuel spend, miles and passenger journeys every week, not every quarter.
- Measure dead mileage, the miles driven with no passenger on board.
- For demand responsive transport, watch passengers per vehicle hour. Higher loads spread fuel costs further.
For charity CEOs, trustees and board members
- Reforecast the fuel budget using today's prices and the 2027 duty rise.
- Test reserves against the 215p stress case in the table above.
- Talk to funders early, with evidence of cost per journey, before a shortfall forces cuts.
For councils, central government and public sector budget holders
- Contracts priced before February 2026 may no longer cover providers' fuel costs.
- Consider fuel adjustment clauses so neither side carries all the risk.
- For SEND and home to school routes, single occupancy journeys carry the highest fuel cost per pupil.
For NHS transport leads and NHS buyers
- Patient journeys are often long and rural, so fuel costs rise faster than average.
- Group journeys to the same clinic sessions where patient needs allow.
- Check that providers can still meet appointment times without cutting corners on quality.
For operations, facilities and HR teams
- Review staff shuttle timetables against real demand to avoid empty runs.
- Update mileage policies to the 55p approved rate and the latest advisory fuel rates.
- For sensitive transfers, never trade safety or safeguarding for fewer miles.
For volunteers, drivers, passengers and families
- Volunteer drivers can be reimbursed up to 55p a mile tax free, so claim every mile promptly.
- Smooth driving and correct tyre pressures cut fuel use and give passengers a calmer ride.
- Passengers and carers may see charges rise. Ask your scheme about concessions or shared journeys.
How do mileage rates compare with fuel costs now?
Volunteer and staff mileage rates have partly caught up. HMRC raised the approved rate for cars and vans from 45p to 55p a mile for the first 10,000 miles, backdated to 6 April 2026. Above that, the rate stays at 25p, plus 5p a mile per passenger.
At today's prices, a petrol car at 45 mpg burns about 17.5p of fuel a mile. So 55p still covers fuel, with room for wear, insurance and servicing. The government has committed to review the rate at the October Budget, according to Volunteer Now.
Company car rates are tighter. HMRC's advisory fuel rates from 1 September 2026 were calculated using diesel at 179.2p a litre, PetrolPrices.co.uk found, well below today's pump price. Until the 1 December review, drivers of diesel pool cars may be paid less than they spend.
For more on how mileage based charges are changing, see our guide to pay per mile tax.
How can transport operators manage rising fuel costs?
You cannot control oil markets, but you can control miles, loads and data. The steps below are roughly in order of how quickly they pay back.
- Measure your baseline. Record fuel spend, miles and journeys each week so you can prove any savings to funders and councils.
- Cut dead mileage. Allocate the nearest suitable driver and plan runs that start and finish close to the first and last pickups.
- Group compatible journeys. Combine trips to the same hospital, school or town where passenger needs allow. Our guide to route optimisation explains how.
- Shop around for fuel. Use a Fuel Finder app before every fill. The CMA says savings can reach £9 a tank.
- Drive and maintain for economy. Our 15 fuel saving tips cover smooth driving, idling and tyre pressures.
- Review contracts and charges. Model the 215p stress case and discuss fuel adjustment clauses before renewals.
- Keep mileage rates current. Pay volunteers the 55p rate and update advisory fuel rates every quarter.
Road XS helps with steps two and three by allocating journeys and building routes around vehicle capacity, passenger needs and traffic, then reporting miles and costs by contract. Whatever tools you use, the principle stays the same. Every mile you avoid is fuel you never have to buy.
Want the longer view on pump prices? Read why petrol prices are so high, or see how the new £2 bus fare cap could change demand for local services.
Frequently asked questions
Why are fuel prices rising in September 2026?
Fuel prices are rising because the war involving Iran continues to disrupt oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude traded around $100 a barrel in September, and a global shortage of diesel has pushed diesel close to £2 a litre. Pump prices also lag behind falls in wholesale costs.
Will fuel prices go down soon?
Not quickly. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average around $90 for the rest of 2026 and $74 in 2027. A peace deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz could bring faster falls, but fuel duty is due to rise by about 6p a litre with VAT in early 2027.
Why is diesel so much more expensive than petrol?
Diesel comes from the same part of the oil barrel as heating oil and jet fuel, and global refining supply is tight. That raises the premium refiners charge for diesel. Since the war began, UK diesel has risen 54.5p a litre while petrol has risen 40p, according to RAC data.
When will fuel duty go up?
Fuel duty stays at 52.95p a litre until 31 December 2026. Under HMRC's published rates, it rises to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027. The government will confirm the final rates at the Budget on 28 October 2026, so the plan could still change.
How much does it cost to fill a car now?
At RAC average prices on 22 September 2026, filling a 55 litre tank costs about £95 with petrol and £108 with diesel. That is roughly £22 and £30 more than before the war began in February. Prices vary between forecourts, so checking a Fuel Finder app can cut the cost.
What mileage rate can volunteer drivers claim in 2026?
Volunteer drivers can be reimbursed up to 55p a mile tax free for the first 10,000 miles in the 2026 to 2027 tax year, then 25p a mile. An extra 5p a mile per passenger is allowed. The higher rate is backdated to 6 April 2026.
How can community transport schemes cut fuel costs?
The biggest savings come from driving fewer miles for the same service. Schemes can cut empty running, group compatible journeys, allocate the nearest suitable driver and track fuel spend weekly. Shopping around for fuel, smooth driving and correct tyre pressures add smaller but steady savings on every journey.
Cut wasted mileage before the next price rise
Fuel prices are outside your control. Wasted mileage is not. Road XS helps community transport, patient transport, school transport and DRT teams plan tighter routes, group journeys and report real costs by contract, so every litre carries more passengers.
